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Post by oasisserbia on Jul 20, 2020 7:22:06 GMT -5
And again, it's all in amount of contact, that's why so many doctors died. If you just hang out with somoene or pass by him on bike, there is small chance that you were get infected and if you do, 99,99% it wouldn't be more dangerous than flu. It would be less dangerous actually, you wouldn't even feel it.
That's why I am pissed, those regular masks doesn't mean shit. And in Serbia they were 0.05 Euros before corona and now they cost 1 Euro. And all that our dear doctors needed were those N95 masks or masks like that and they cost 2 or 3 Euros and they died because they didn't have them.
Corona virus = media that creates panic + governments that are incapable or are doing on purpose all this and making all bad desicions.
We should stop fighting amongst ourselves and fight against real problem and that is governments and media controled by them. Then we should see what to do about virus. This way, this can last forever.
And all those pictures and percentages that you are posting are fucking fake and doesn't mean shit. Fact. Maybe it's worse, maybe it's better but all numbers that we have are fake.
In order to fight against something, you need to know the truth and who are you fighting against and what are real ways to fight.
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Post by eva on Jul 20, 2020 7:43:48 GMT -5
yes! to be young and healthy... let's focus only on the tiny small threat for people under 65 only who cares about old folks, they're gonna die soon anyway, right? That's such an overused reply. You haven't acknowledged my reply on those numbers being increased by non Covid deaths. there's no way to know the excess mortality because there isn't enough data numbers differ for many reasons in some countries they only count the deaths that occur in hospitals. in others only those that have been tested there's also less traffic so fewer ammount of accidents
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Post by Jack on Jul 20, 2020 8:05:51 GMT -5
That's such an overused reply. You haven't acknowledged my reply on those numbers being increased by non Covid deaths. there's no way to know the excess mortality because there isn't enough data numbers differ for many reasons in some countries they only count the deaths that occur in hospitals. in others only those that have been tested there's also less traffic so fewer ammount of accidents Which basically means none of us really know the real numbers. Which means none of know what's really going on. Which means we should all be open to opinion and not believing everything we are told.
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Post by oasisunited on Jul 20, 2020 8:26:52 GMT -5
This whole thread is fascinating, as it shows how all of us are preconditioned to focus on the tangible (number of reported cases, deaths, etc) and typically fail to see the larger, more abstract issue at play that is forcing governments to make the decisions that are being made. The Influenza vs SARS-CoV-2 debate misses a few, very important, key issues:
1) We have a vaccine for Influenza, we do not have one for SARS-CoV-2. 2) We have therapeutics to treat people with Influenza, we don't really have any proven ones (yet) for SARS-CoV-2, though some have shown promise. 3) While there are roughly 60,000 deaths a year in the US from Influenza, it occurs over the period of many, many months and could and would be prevented or at least mitigated if people got the vaccine. Those deaths do not happen over the course of weeks, like we are seeing with SARS-CoV-2, putting huge strain on the medical systems around the world 4) The SARS-CoV-2 is not done mutating. While it is true that Influenza still mutates and can be an issue, the fact that we have a vaccine helps counter that. Letting SARS-CoV-2 just transmit from person to person because it only kills "old or sick" people runs the risk of us allowing the virus to keep mutating and potential become more virulent. Admittedly, this is a low risk as typically Coronaviruses mutate into "retirement", such as the common cold, but it is a risk, nonetheless. No one wants to play Russian Roulette with the virus and find out that it will become more deadly by allowing it to transmit. 5) The jury is still out with regards to whether or not those who get SARS-CoV-2 develop temporary immunity and for how long. Until it is proven that we have an effective vaccine that confers immunity for a known minimum period of time, we still run the risk of overwhelming our healthcare system if we don't work to contain the transmission.
I would suggest that people find and watch some of the talks given by Dr. Larry Brilliant, who helped eradicate smallpox in India, as gaining a broader understanding of pandemics and the impact on public health and public health systems will give more perspective on why governments have to react the way that they are reacting due to the fact that we missed our chance to stop this early on and now trying (and failing) at containment.
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Post by eva on Jul 20, 2020 8:27:38 GMT -5
there's no way to know the excess mortality because there isn't enough data numbers differ for many reasons in some countries they only count the deaths that occur in hospitals. in others only those that have been tested there's also less traffic so fewer ammount of accidents Which basically means none of us really know the real numbers. Which means none of know what's really going on. Which means we should all be open to opinion and not believing everything we are told. and also means you shouldn't dismiss it like it's a common flu or that you're safe from it because you're young and healthy
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Post by oasisserbia on Jul 20, 2020 8:39:13 GMT -5
Which basically means none of us really know the real numbers. Which means none of know what's really going on. Which means we should all be open to opinion and not believing everything we are told. that you're safe from it because you're young and healthy That's exactly how everyone should feel, even if it's not true. I could die while writing this but imagine thinking about that whole day. Actually, I don't have to imagine, I've been in that situation few months ago. And now most of the world is in that situation. This is not Spanish flu, more people died in car accidents this year than from Covid. So please, wear helmet and RoboCop suit while crossing the street, don't ever drive or get in the car or bus or train or plain, don't ever ride a bike. Actually, police curfew and lockdown are the best, if we all stay home, nobody will die in car accident.
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Post by globe on Jul 20, 2020 9:17:58 GMT -5
What other points? Ask me again. How can test kits be reliable, or vaccines be produced for a virus that hasn't been isolated? I’m afraid I can’t answer those questions, I’m not a scientist or a doctor. I do know a scientist though who works for Leica and who has given me lots of good information on how this and other viruses work. I’ve also been reading about COVID by other prominent scientists and have no reason to believe why any of them would be involved in any sort of conspiracy - the type of which you and your tinfoil hat wearing mate from Belgrade seem to think is happening. I don’t think we’ll see the full impact of COVID until 5/10 years down the road when people who have had it start experiencing other issues.
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Post by Jack on Jul 20, 2020 9:24:00 GMT -5
How can test kits be reliable, or vaccines be produced for a virus that hasn't been isolated? I’m afraid I can’t answer those questions, I’m not a scientist or a doctor. I do know a scientist though who works for Leica and who has given me lots of good information on how this and other viruses work. I’ve also been reading about COVID by other prominent scientists and have no reason to believe why any of them would be involved in any sort of conspiracy - the type of which you and your tinfoil hat wearing mate from Belgrade seem to think is happening. I don’t think we’ll see the full impact of COVID until 5/10 years down the road when people who have had it start experiencing other issues. Lol, ok mate, you keep following the herd. And you're right about the impact down the line, but it will be from the result of poverty and economic disaster, not deaths from a virus.
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Post by Jack on Jul 20, 2020 9:29:21 GMT -5
Which basically means none of us really know the real numbers. Which means none of know what's really going on. Which means we should all be open to opinion and not believing everything we are told. and also means you shouldn't dismiss it like it's a common flu or that you're safe from it because you're young and healthy I base my beliefs on scientific data, reports from independent doctors etc. I do not believe or trust anything from BBC, Daily Mail, NBC etc. From what I've read and from my experience, I have decided what to believe. But I am always open to changing my mind and being open to discussion, if I'm provided with something convincing, unlike everyone else here who has chosen a side and is offended by anything that opposes their belief. So wear your masks, social distance, wash your hands and carry on living in fear.
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Post by oasisserbia on Jul 20, 2020 9:46:09 GMT -5
How can test kits be reliable, or vaccines be produced for a virus that hasn't been isolated? I’m afraid I can’t answer those questions, I’m not a scientist or a doctor. I do know a scientist though who works for Leica and who has given me lots of good information on how this and other viruses work. I’ve also been reading about COVID by other prominent scientists and have no reason to believe why any of them would be involved in any sort of conspiracy - the type of which you and your tinfoil hat wearing mate from Belgrade seem to think is happening. I don’t think we’ll see the full impact of COVID until 5/10 years down the road when people who have had it start experiencing other issues. Tinfoil hat mate lol. Funny thing is that I don't read or believe in any conspiracy theories. And now we are crazy and you paranoid lunatics are some reasonable pro-science people. It's not conspiracy if it's true and I can prove it. I am talking about numbers and propaganda. Did I ever mention Bill Gates, 5G, vaccines...?
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 9:50:26 GMT -5
I am not wasting my time to “argue” with people who completely have a different view on this disease. Stay safe wherever you are everyone and take care of not only yourself but for the people around you as well. I feel the same way. I respect your beliefs, but it's very frustrating when facts are provided here, but just completely ignored. Theres nothing wrong with questioning the official media narrative and making your own conclusions. I DO NOT respect any belief that contributes to suffering and death. Fuck anybody that is so selfish.
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Post by globe on Jul 20, 2020 9:51:22 GMT -5
I’m afraid I can’t answer those questions, I’m not a scientist or a doctor. I do know a scientist though who works for Leica and who has given me lots of good information on how this and other viruses work. I’ve also been reading about COVID by other prominent scientists and have no reason to believe why any of them would be involved in any sort of conspiracy - the type of which you and your tinfoil hat wearing mate from Belgrade seem to think is happening. I don’t think we’ll see the full impact of COVID until 5/10 years down the road when people who have had it start experiencing other issues. Lol, ok mate, you keep following the herd. And you're right about the impact down the line, but it will be from the result of poverty and economic disaster, not deaths from a virus. Lol ok mate, I’ll keep following the herd - that’s what I’m doing eh.
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Post by Jack on Jul 20, 2020 9:52:48 GMT -5
I feel the same way. I respect your beliefs, but it's very frustrating when facts are provided here, but just completely ignored. Theres nothing wrong with questioning the official media narrative and making your own conclusions. I DO NOT respect any belief that contributes to suffering and death. Fuck anybody that is so selfish. Same here
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Post by globe on Jul 20, 2020 9:55:21 GMT -5
I’m afraid I can’t answer those questions, I’m not a scientist or a doctor. I do know a scientist though who works for Leica and who has given me lots of good information on how this and other viruses work. I’ve also been reading about COVID by other prominent scientists and have no reason to believe why any of them would be involved in any sort of conspiracy - the type of which you and your tinfoil hat wearing mate from Belgrade seem to think is happening. I don’t think we’ll see the full impact of COVID until 5/10 years down the road when people who have had it start experiencing other issues. Tinfoil hat mate lol. Funny thing is that I don't read or believe in any conspiracy theories. And now we are crazy and you paranoid lunatics are some reasonable pro-science people. It's not conspiracy if it's true and I can prove it. I am talking about numbers and propaganda. Did I ever mention Bill Gates, 5G, vaccines...? No you didn’t mention Gates or 5G but you also seem to be putting over a point of view that somehow we are all being lied to about COVID by different governments all over the world for some reason, and COVID is not as dangerous as we are being led to believe - referring to your comments here regarding tennis tournaments and your 50 healthy mates. So aye, you are coming across as a tinfoil hat wearing, moon howling crackpot to me I’m afraid.
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Post by Jack on Jul 20, 2020 9:59:33 GMT -5
Tinfoil hat mate lol. Funny thing is that I don't read or believe in any conspiracy theories. And now we are crazy and you paranoid lunatics are some reasonable pro-science people. It's not conspiracy if it's true and I can prove it. I am talking about numbers and propaganda. Did I ever mention Bill Gates, 5G, vaccines...? No you didn’t mention Gates or 5G but you also seem to be putting over a point of view that somehow we are all being lied to about COVID by different governments all over the world for some reason, and COVID is not as dangerous as we are being led to believe - referring to your comments here regarding tennis tournaments and your 50 healthy mates. So aye, you are coming across as a tinfoil hat wearing, moon howling crackpot to me I’m afraid. The problem is that even if evidence or studies are posted, they are just disregarded and not given any discussion. I've posted links here already, and there isnt even a 'hm, interesting, I didn't know that. Maybe I should do some more research.'
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 10:03:45 GMT -5
This whole thread is fascinating, as it shows how all of us are preconditioned to focus on the tangible (number of reported cases, deaths, etc) and typically fail to see the larger, more abstract issue at play that is forcing governments to make the decisions that are being made. The Influenza vs SARS-CoV-2 debate misses a few, very important, key issues: 1) We have a vaccine for Influenza, we do not have one for SARS-CoV-2. 2) We have therapeutics to treat people with Influenza, we don't really have any proven ones (yet) for SARS-CoV-2, though some have shown promise. 3) While there are roughly 60,000 deaths a year in the US from Influenza, it occurs over the period of many, many months and could and would be prevented or at least mitigated if people got the vaccine. Those deaths do not happen over the course of weeks, like we are seeing with SARS-CoV-2, putting huge strain on the medical systems around the world 4) The SARS-CoV-2 is not done mutating. While it is true that Influenza still mutates and can be an issue, the fact that we have a vaccine helps counter that. Letting SARS-CoV-2 just transmit from person to person because it only kills "old or sick" people runs the risk of us allowing the virus to keep mutating and potential become more virulent. Admittedly, this is a low risk as typically Coronaviruses mutate into "retirement", such as the common cold, but it is a risk, nonetheless. No one wants to play Russian Roulette with the virus and find out that it will become more deadly by allowing it to transmit. 5) The jury is still out with regards to whether or not those who get SARS-CoV-2 develop temporary immunity and for how long. Until it is proven that we have an effective vaccine that confers immunity for a known minimum period of time, we still run the risk of overwhelming our healthcare system if we don't work to contain the transmission. I would suggest that people find and watch some of the talks given by Dr. Larry Brilliant, who helped eradicate smallpox in India, as gaining a broader understanding of pandemics and the impact on public health and public health systems will give more perspective on why governments have to react the way that they are reacting due to the fact that we missed our chance to stop this early on and now trying (and failing) at containment. 6) This virus has the potential to burn through our entire population. In the most infected place in the world its only managed to officially infect 1% of the country. Granted, that's likely much higher, probably closer to 10% in actuality. Even at a very low death rate, say 1%, if 50% of the U.S gets infected, that's going to be over a million deaths. We can prevent this through proactive measures.
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 10:06:44 GMT -5
that you're safe from it because you're young and healthy That's exactly how everyone should feel, even if it's not true. I could die while writing this but imagine thinking about that whole day. Actually, I don't have to imagine, I've been in that situation few months ago. And now most of the world is in that situation. This is not Spanish flu, more people died in car accidents this year than from Covid. So please, wear helmet and RoboCop suit while crossing the street, don't ever drive or get in the car or bus or train or plain, don't ever ride a bike. Actually, police curfew and lockdown are the best, if we all stay home, nobody will die in car accident. Those deaths are still occurring. On top of the extra from Covid.
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 10:10:33 GMT -5
To those who think the virus isn't an issue, what exactly would convince you that it is? What exactly are you even looking for?
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Post by oasisserbia on Jul 20, 2020 10:31:58 GMT -5
That's exactly how everyone should feel, even if it's not true. I could die while writing this but imagine thinking about that whole day. Actually, I don't have to imagine, I've been in that situation few months ago. And now most of the world is in that situation. This is not Spanish flu, more people died in car accidents this year than from Covid. So please, wear helmet and RoboCop suit while crossing the street, don't ever drive or get in the car or bus or train or plain, don't ever ride a bike. Actually, police curfew and lockdown are the best, if we all stay home, nobody will die in car accident. Those deaths are still occurring. On top of the extra from Covid. Well, that's the thing, we don't know if those are the same deaths or different. They even admitted here that they were putting everyone as Covid victims. Doctor Nestorovic, who was part of that doctors team which was leading battle against Covid (I don't know word in English) said that if some really old guy died and it was matter of time anyway, they were saying that he died from Corona because they made tests after he died or minutes before die or something like that. Our President was sitting next to him and he was saying all that. Then he said that there were old people with both flu and covid and million other thing, but they were all registered as Covid victims. When first nine people died, our president said that two of them died of heart attack and that they were already in hospital because of heart attack with almost no chance to survive and then someone infected them with Covid and that was it. It could be Covid, it could be open window while it's cold outside, it could be mosquito...reason of their death is heart attack not Covid. If I have heart problems and Oasis get back together and I get so excited and die, can my parents sue Noel and Liam because they killed me? Question is how many extra deaths are from Covid. If you die in car accident and they find that you had Covid, they will say that you died from Covid, that't the thing.
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 10:45:41 GMT -5
Those deaths are still occurring. On top of the extra from Covid. Well, that's the thing, we don't know if those are the same deaths or different. They even admitted here that they were putting everyone as Covid victims. Doctor Nestorovic, who was part of that doctors team which was leading battle against Covid (I don't know word in English) said that if some really old guy died and it was matter of time anyway, they were saying that he died from Corona because they made tests after he died or minutes before die or something like that. Our President was sitting next to him and he was saying all that. Then he said that there were old people with both flu and covid and million other thing, but they were all registered as Covid victims. When first nine people died, our president said that two of them died of heart attack and that they were already in hospital because of heart attack with almost no chance to survive and then someone infected them with Covid and that was it. It could be Covid, it could be open window while it's cold outside, it could be mosquito...reason of their death is heart attack not Covid. If I have heart problems and Oasis get back together and I get so excited and die, can my parents sue Noel and Liam because they killed me? Question is how many extra deaths are from Covid. If you die in car accident and they find that you had Covid, they will say that you died from Covid, that't the thing. Here in Florida there is evidence to indicate the government may be hiding the true amount of deaths and infections by undercounting.For example, we have incredibly high pneumonia deaths in this year, which isn't even over yet and those numbers dwarf previous years. Is that the case? Or is it covid deaths disguised as something else so DeSantis doesn't look incompetent when he says this is all under control?
Even in a scenario where what you say is absolutely true for your country, that doesn't mean Covid won't eventually spill over into yours and become a real problem there. Why would you prefer to act only when it is too late? Your country and your people are not immune to the virus. Nobody is.
"reason of their death is heart attack not Covid."
I already covered the potential logic behind this. Too briefly summarize, Covid causes complications. Heart attack is one of them. So the reason may be heart attack, but the cause may be covid infection. If they tested positive for covid, then it's like the cause of death.
" If you die in car accident and they find that you had Covid, they will say that you died from Covid, that't the thing. "
That extrapolation doesn't quite work, considering car accidents aren't complications of covid.
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Post by Jack on Jul 20, 2020 10:49:55 GMT -5
To those who think the virus isn't an issue, what exactly would convince you that it is? What exactly are you even looking for? If I met someone or even saw someone with symptoms on a regular basis. I know you're gonna say 'just cos you dont see it, doesnt mean it doesnt exist', but that's what would convince me of something being more contagious than the flu. Also, hospitals actually being overrun.
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 11:27:13 GMT -5
To those who think the virus isn't an issue, what exactly would convince you that it is? What exactly are you even looking for? If I met someone or even saw someone with symptoms on a regular basis. I know you're gonna say 'just cos you dont see it, doesnt mean it doesnt exist', but that's what would convince me of something being more contagious than the flu. Also, hospitals actually being overrun. Wouldn't people suffering from the virus be: A) Sheltering in place if they are not too ill
or B) In a hospital? What is the probability if running into either?
If you do run into those with virus, it would more likely be early, or pre-symptomatic stages or it would be asymptomatic carriers. Neither of which would likely be aware they have it.
And considering the numbers, for example, here in America, 1% of the country officially infected, maybe up to 10% unofficially. That's at best case, 1 in 10 chance of encountering people with virus. Or 1 in 100 at the worst case of encountering people with the virus. Despite low rate, it is moving. It is increasing. We have dwarfed the first surge in cases with New York, the amount of known active infections are increasing. How much longer before it becomes 1 in 5 chance or 1 in 2 chance and so on? At our current rate, not long! This also is true globally. The more infections, the more likely you will run into it or contract it yourself. The general idea is prevent it from getting to that stage by taking measures to avoid spreading it.
In this, I have officially known one person who came down with it. And currently 3 more who have been exposed and are waiting on their tests to come back ... or symptoms to develop. My county is up to 50 deaths and 4300 cases. Most of those cases in the last month, not even long enough for the deaths to begin rolling in. And a month and a half ago, before everybody came to see the SpaceX launch, we were under 15 deaths and 1k cases.
This virus IS more contagious than flu.
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 11:52:39 GMT -5
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Post by oasisunited on Jul 20, 2020 11:55:15 GMT -5
This virus IS more contagious than flu. This. The R0 (transmission rate) of Influenza is about 1.4-1.6 (meaning 1 person infects about 1.5 other people). The current estimates on SARS-CoV-2 is about 5.7, meaning one person infects about 6 other people. Early on, they believed it was closer to the 2.x range, but that has been proven wrong after we have had time to gather more data. That last bit underlies this whole discussion -- anyone claiming to know one way or another right now is wrong. We are learning to fly the plane while we are building it in the air. We won't know how bad this is until it is over and we have enough data to determine it. That is why people are urging caution with regards to the response, because the data in the end could end up being far worse that we even know now. The decision we have to make is whether or not we want to bet it it will be better than thought and risk people's health in the process if we end up being wrong.
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Post by The Invisible Sun on Jul 20, 2020 12:09:18 GMT -5
This virus IS more contagious than flu. This. The R0 (transmission rate) of Influenza is about 1.4-1.6 (meaning 1 person infects about 1.5 other people). The current estimates on SARS-CoV-2 is about 5.7, meaning one person infects about 6 other people. Early on, they believed it was closer to the 2.x range, but that has been proven wrong after we have had time to gather more data. That last bit underlies this whole discussion -- anyone claiming to know one way or another right now is wrong. We are learning to fly the plane while we are building it in the air. We won't know how bad this is until it is over and we have enough data to determine it. That is why people are urging caution with regards to the response, because the data in the end could end up being far worse that we even know now. The decision we have to make is whether or not we want to bet it it will be better than thought and risk people's health in the process if we end up being wrong. www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.htmlwww.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-fluwww.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9.pdfI mean, I'm seeing completely different numbers in all 3 articles, but they all seem to trend worse than the flu R0.
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