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Post by Manualex on Oct 21, 2016 17:54:53 GMT -5
Need a Republican in the White House, and for that I'm voting Trump. “It’s not even about supporting Trump. It’s about taking the most principled moral position you can for your family and your country, under very difficult circumstances. And that’s what you do in life most of the time.” ~Mark Levin My country was in that kind of position once in 1998. And that guy won. His name is Chavez... |
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Post by Manualex on Oct 21, 2016 18:04:20 GMT -5
Need a Republican in the White House, and for that I'm voting Trump. “It’s not even about supporting Trump. It’s about taking the most principled moral position you can for your family and your country, under very difficult circumstances. And that’s what you do in life most of the time.” ~Mark Levin My country was in that kind of position once in 1998. And that guy won. His name is Chavez... PS. You shouldnt vote for him, unless you want chaos and anarchy in the US, if you want it then go ahead. But dont moan when the time proves you wrong. |
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Oct 21, 2016 19:02:15 GMT -5
I wish I had "only" a 15% chance of winning the presidency. #britannialaw
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Post by spaneli on Oct 21, 2016 22:14:03 GMT -5
Need a Republican in the White House, and for that I'm voting Trump. “It’s not even about supporting Trump. It’s about taking the most principled moral position you can for your family and your country, under very difficult circumstances. And that’s what you do in life most of the time.” ~Mark Levin You're voting for a guy who isn't even a Republican? Think about that. He's not a Republican. He's a Rhino. He barely supports any Republican tenants. He doesn't even like the Republican party. And that quote is the most ironic bullshit I've ever heard, if you're attaching it to Trump. Whatever small portion of respect anyone had on this forum for you should be gone tbh. Vote for a racist, sexist, rapist bigot? But ya know, that's what the country needs. A guy who Republicans can't stand. A guy who doesn't have the respect of the previous Republican president, nominee, or current speaker of the house. You vote for trump, you're supporting him and there's no bullshit logic you can use for it. Your name is by his on the ballot. Stop trying to reason why you're willing to support a piss poor human being. Because it doesn't work. |
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Post by oasisserbia on Oct 22, 2016 3:00:15 GMT -5
Trump is better human being than Hillary.
And he is massive vagina.
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Post by tomlivesforever on Oct 22, 2016 6:28:45 GMT -5
Need a Republican in the White House, and for that I'm voting Trump. “It’s not even about supporting Trump. It’s about taking the most principled moral position you can for your family and your country, under very difficult circumstances. And that’s what you do in life most of the time.” ~Mark Levin All those years you spent on here acting clever and it turns out you aren't, at all. Yet I still think you have enough of that inner arrogance to justify your decision to yourself. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 7:19:33 GMT -5
What are the chances for Trump to win?
The media thought that the referendum for the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine in the Netherlands would be a 'yes' but it was a 'no' with 61%. Same with the Brexit.
That's why I can see Trump win.
If I see the news I would think that Clinton will win with 90%.
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Post by spaneli on Oct 22, 2016 9:31:22 GMT -5
What are the chances for Trump to win? The media thought that the referendum for the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine in the Netherlands would be a 'yes' but it was a 'no' with 61%. Same with the Brexit. That's why I can see Trump win. If I see the news I would think that Clinton will win with 90%. It's not the media who have proclaimed Trump the winner. It's the polls. In the end, there are five states he seriously has to take, North carolina, florida, Ohio, nevada, and Pennsylvania or Colorado, in order to become president. He currently has no chance to win three of those. There's no other way for him to win the presidency, unless he somehow flips states like New York, where's he likely to lose by +15 points. There are no other states. We don't go by pure popular vote. The electoral college is completely different. And actually, even if we did go by popular vote, Trump is down 7 points. With less than 3 weeks left, he'd have to hope for a massive polling error, which is unlikely because that number is coming from the average of dozens of polls. A 7 point deficit is massive. That would be a larger margin than Obama won against Romney, and that was an extremely comfortable margin for Obama. The chances of polling being off in some cases by 7+ points in all five of these states is nearly 0. Understand, these are states that Clinton has led in for months. Trump is currently struggling to hold on to typical Republican states like Alaska, Georgia, and Utah. If he can't hold onto to his base states, how will he eat into typically democratic base states in less than 3 weeks? The map for Trump to win just isnt there. And tbh, the media may have been wrong about Brexit, but the polling wasnt. People ignored polling and started cherry picking favorable ones. Right now, there aren't any favorable polls for Trump. Currently, Trump has a near 0% chance of winning this election. He's going to lose, and he's going to lose badly. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 11:26:57 GMT -5
The only way Trump wins is if Democrats don't go out and vote because they think it's in the bag. Or if the 19th amendment is repealed.
I was a Bernie guy but I'm at peace with Hillary being our president. I really hope Democrats take Congress and Bernie becomes the Chair of the Senate Budget Committee so we can get shit done!
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Post by spaneli on Oct 22, 2016 11:57:37 GMT -5
If Clinton wins, she'll continue the run of Illinois/Chicago Democrats. She was born in Chicago and raised in park Ridge (a suburb in Chicago), up until she went to college.
Also, with Harry Reid leaving, that will Dick Durbin (Illinois senior senator, and the man who really pushed Obama onto center stage) as the most likely Senate Majority leader.
If counting Republicans, of the last 6 presidents, three were either raised in Illinois or represented Illinois.
Reagan/Obama/H. Clinton
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Post by batfink30 on Oct 22, 2016 13:49:22 GMT -5
So, Trump eh?! LOL!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 13:52:26 GMT -5
the funny thing is Ive watched the debates and trump will say something I will think "fuck no" but then clinton will open her mouth and I think "nah I like the other one more" but then I realise the other one is trump and I mentally run away.  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 19:11:59 GMT -5
I look at this thread and all I can think is: the States are pretty much living what the entire politics down here were for years. I seriously wish good luck to you, guys.
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Post by Let It🩸 on Oct 23, 2016 19:44:36 GMT -5
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Post by Let It🩸 on Oct 24, 2016 11:03:43 GMT -5
One good thing about this presidential election: with the political signs in yards it makes it a lot easier to identify the lunatics and/or idiots in the area....  Thanks. |
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Oct 25, 2016 9:46:45 GMT -5
Hahaha I love you, Internet. Two weeks....
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Post by Let It🩸 on Oct 25, 2016 14:39:57 GMT -5
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Oct 26, 2016 9:37:24 GMT -5
Race has been tightening, but Trump still has no real path to electoral victory.
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Post by Elie De Beaufour 🐴 on Oct 26, 2016 13:44:24 GMT -5
When Trump loses, can we put Bully O'Reilly, Lumpy Hannity, Loser Trump, Racist Bannon, Pervert Ailes, Paid Shill Lewandowski, Shoplifter Katrina Pierson, Beady’s Here Now and the bevy of blonde Trump spokeswhackos on a boat to Nauru? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2016 16:05:06 GMT -5
When Trump loses, can we put Bully O'Reilly, Lumpy Hannity, Loser Trump, Racist Bannon, Pervert Ailes, Paid Shill Lewandowski, Shoplifter Katrina Pierson, Beady’s Here Now and the bevy of blonde Trump spokeswhackos on a boat to Nauru? What Nauru did wrong to you to deserve this?  |
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Post by Elie De Beaufour 🐴 on Oct 26, 2016 16:13:04 GMT -5
When Trump loses, can we put Bully O'Reilly, Lumpy Hannity, Loser Trump, Racist Bannon, Pervert Ailes, Paid Shill Lewandowski, Shoplifter Katrina Pierson, Beady’s Here Now and the bevy of blonde Trump spokeswhackos on a boat to Nauru? What Nauru did wrong to you to deserve this? Switch them with the refugees. |
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Post by Let It🩸 on Oct 26, 2016 19:13:25 GMT -5
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Post by jakob61907 on Oct 26, 2016 21:53:02 GMT -5
When Trump loses, can we put Bully O'Reilly, Lumpy Hannity, Loser Trump, Racist Bannon, Pervert Ailes, Paid Shill Lewandowski, Shoplifter Katrina Pierson, Beady’s Here Now and the bevy of blonde Trump spokeswhackos on a boat to Nauru? Add in Ann Coulter |
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Oct 26, 2016 22:04:06 GMT -5
Let's be honest, Clinton does not have a double digit lead - or anywhere close to that. Obama won in 2008 by 7%. Obama that year garnered massive enthusiasm in a year when Republicans would be smashed due to the deep recession and the George W Bush years. If Obama couldn't even get into double digits in that climate, Clinton most certaintly can't in this hyper-partisan era with two garbage candidates. There are problems with the polls, the question is - how much, and will it be enough to tip the scale in the swing states towards Trump. Probably not, as it would take a lot of things to happen all at once, but it's not 100% over just yet. spaneli |
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Post by spaneli on Oct 27, 2016 1:43:23 GMT -5
Let's be honest, Clinton does not have a double digit lead - or anywhere close to that. Obama won in 2008 by 7%. Obama that year garnered massive enthusiasm in a year when Republicans would be smashed due to the deep recession and the George W Bush years. If Obama couldn't even get into double digits in that climate, Clinton most certaintly can't in this hyper-partisan era with two garbage candidates. There are problems with the polls, the question is - how much, and will it be enough to tip the scale in the swing states towards Trump. Probably not, as it would take a lot of things to happen all at once, but it's not 100% over just yet. spaneliProblem with the polls? Um, no there aren't. Polls fluctuate from polling firm to polling firm based on methodology in their polling. That's why you take polls and average them out. That's why you don't take only one poll (And if someone brings up Brexit, when you research Brexit you'll find that the polls were spot on, I swear). Some polls show a double digit lead. Some show Clinton ahead by about 4 points (This is normal). Either way, that's bad for Trump. When averaging them together, her lead is probably somewhere around 5-6 points. No legitimate electoral forecast has ever had her around double digits, but 5-6 points with less than two weeks is a massive lead. And even if you chalked it down to polling error, polling error works both ways. Hence, plus or minus. So, if you go by the thought that there could be polling error, "so a dead heat." Then you also have to accept that it can be plus too, so a possible double digit lead. So, both are possible, but not likely. Also, the problem for Trump is he has to win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. He has to win all four. He's most likely not winning Pennsylvania. That state is all but finished. Lastly, of course this isn't 100% over. Statistically there's no such thing. But 538 has been the most generous for Trump and he only sits at a 14.3% chance. They're covering their bases. But the odds of a systematic polling error in all the swing states, is slim at best. Possible, but extremely slim. And remember, there's been no legitimate poll that has shown Trump pulling into a clear lead. The idea of EVERY single poll being off is folly. |
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Nov 4, 2024 5:04:30 GMT -5