|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 30, 2011 19:32:34 GMT -5
So I was on Facebook and I sent an old friend of mine a link for IIHAG. Now she is a not an Oasis, and has never bought an album. But the second she was done hearing IIHAG, she went to Amazon and put it on her wishlist and has told me that she will be buying Noel's solo album. This got me thinking about the "success" of Noel's album.
As of the moment, here are the factors working for him:
1. He'll probably have both the hardcore fans and the casual fans. Let's all be honest, we know that only diehard fans actually bought DGSS. Could Noel be different? I'm thinking it could be with him.
2. The week that it's being released in the US, Noel is doing Letterman
3. Noel has a pretty damn good song out now. I think that IIHAG will get at least moderately good airplay of college radio and alt. rock/classic rock stations in the US.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that he'll reach 9 or 10 on the Billboard 200. I'm looking at the week that Noel is set to release in, and there doesn't appear to be anything big or major being released before him or during that week. I think that Noel's people picked a good week to release. Beady Eye got to #31 on basically hardcore fans and in a pretty tough week. I think the three factors above, along with a favorable release date (maybe the biggest factor), could lead Noel to either just barely getting to the Top 10 or charting just outside of it. I mean in any other normal week, Beady Eye could have charted at #21, rather than 31.
Note: I know that charts prove nothing, and they really don't matter. But I'm not debating the meaning of charts here, just your predictions.
So what do you guys think? Do you think that Noel will do surprisingly well in the US? Or do you think that he'll fare no better than Beady Eye.
|
|
|
|
Post by matt on Aug 30, 2011 19:40:52 GMT -5
It would be nice to see Noel succeed in the US. What are the chances of US radio stations heavily playing If I Had A Gun ?
|
|
|
|
Post by bwilder on Aug 30, 2011 19:42:08 GMT -5
It's an interesting topic. Again, it all boils down to promotion because the song is THAT good.
And more importantly, it's the type of song Americans like. For the record, IIHAG has 35,000
plays on KROQ so far today. Pretty impressive.
|
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 30, 2011 19:42:24 GMT -5
It would be nice to see Noel succeed in the US. What are the chances of US radio stations heavily playing If I Had A Gun ? I don't see IIHAG being played "heavily" every way like 5 times a day, but I do see it getting moderately played in large markets like LA, NY, or Chicago etc. And I do see it being played on College radio. |
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 30, 2011 20:31:48 GMT -5
I'm also wondering how much not having the Oasis brand name will hurt him.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2011 20:41:11 GMT -5
The Oasis brand is still there because every single interview introduces Noel as being the principle songwriter of Oasis, so the casual fans will grab that and assume that the tunes will be quality.
As for how the American market goes, we'll have to see how the video release of IIHAG does (assuming there is one). YouTube is the single greatest determining factor of most big successes in this country.
Lastly, let's not forget that Noel's album already has 3 times the pre-order sales of DGSS as per some news organization on the internet. DGSS only moved 66,000 copies week one, if two-thirds were in-store sales, than Noel already has 66,000 copies sold. It should be interesting to note that Noel still has six weeks before the album comes out. He'll be just fine!
|
|
|
|
Post by Praetor on Aug 30, 2011 20:46:43 GMT -5
I'm also wondering how much not having the Oasis brand name will hurt him. That might be a good thing in the US. |
|
|
|
Post by gdforever on Aug 30, 2011 20:59:42 GMT -5
JitKenson and praetor both have salient points.
Oasis isn't generally well loved except by the fan base in America. The fanbase will be aware or be made aware that Noel is the main songwriter of Oasis. That will bring as many of them into the fold as with BDI...probably even more so. BDI shunned the Oasis connection to a large extent even going so far as to be a bit insulting and dismissive of Oasis....which probably didn't engage him to all the fans. Noel is conversely embracing it.
Those that don't like Oasis because of the attitude may be more open to Noel with him being able to step away from the Oasis brand a bit. He has been pretty humble. You could tell that the KROC people were very surprised by his good humor and good attitude. The second RS article also had a lot of comments about Noel seeming to be a better guy than they had thought, as well
Those that were ambivalent or oblivious, which is frankly a large number, obviously won't give a shit either way about the name change. Those he can win over with music and good promotion.
|
|
|
|
Post by Beady’s Here Now on Aug 30, 2011 21:02:17 GMT -5
I'm also wondering how much not having the Oasis brand name will hurt him. That might be a good thing in the US. Disagree. Americans don't hate Oasis these days. Maybe there was some resentment circa very late 90s/very early 2000s, but it's grown to indifference or mutual respect (of the American played hits - LF, WW, CS...at the very least) in recent times. Let's remember, DBTT along with Lyla, and DOYS along with TSOTL did pretty damn well in the US..... No one knows the name "Noel Gallagher." JitKenson makes a solid point, with the description of being added on, but I don't think that'll be enough for the majority. In any case, I'm going to be beyond pissed off if I log on to buy Noel tickets on Sept 9th and he's already sold out.....He can stay completely unknown in the US until I have my tickets ordered. Only then can he become universally popular! It's counterfactual, but I do strongly believe that if IIHAG was released under the Oasis moniker it would do significantly better in the US (and everywhere else in the world, for that matter) than otherwise. Oasis, for better or for worse, had a worthwhile connotation and reputation. |
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 30, 2011 21:10:23 GMT -5
I'm a bit surprised that no one has published an online review of If I Had A Gun as of yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by Beady’s Here Now on Aug 30, 2011 21:21:23 GMT -5
I'm a bit surprised that no one has published an online review of If I Had A Gun as of yet. Yeah, I was just searching for that as well. Rolling Stone and Pitchfork are probably busy trying to find a way to criticize this stunning song but coming up short because it's an impossible task! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2011 21:28:53 GMT -5
Rolling Stone has actually been very complimentary of Noel lately. Placing him in their mag the past two months with positive sentiment. I think they blame Liam for all of Oasis shit over the years. Hopefully they'll shot Noel some really good love near to the release of the album. Even though RS is generally considered to be utter shite, it is great pub across the country.
|
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 31, 2011 0:51:28 GMT -5
I'm a bit surprised that no one has published an online review of If I Had A Gun as of yet. Yeah, I was just searching for that as well. Rolling Stone and Pitchfork are probably busy trying to find a way to criticize this stunning song but coming up short because it's an impossible task! Pitchfork is probably thinking of all the ways to say how it fell short or something. They'll probably say something like, "This is not good as a Day In The Life. I want music that John Lennon's spirit and Thom Yorke can make love to. " |
|
|
|
Post by Velo on Aug 31, 2011 1:11:24 GMT -5
Yeah, I was just searching for that as well. Rolling Stone and Pitchfork are probably busy trying to find a way to criticize this stunning song but coming up short because it's an impossible task! Pitchfork is probably thinking of all the ways to say how it fell short or something. They'll probably say something like, "This is not good as a Day In The Life. I want music that John Lennon's spirit and Thom Yorke can make love to. " I'm pretty sure Pitchfork is more Team Noel. They still publish news about him and I have a feeling they'll pull a review of the album along the lines of 'hmm this isn't so bad'. BDI on the other hand... |
|
|
|
Post by Silence Dogood on Aug 31, 2011 2:11:14 GMT -5
so we are predicting a top 10 album from Noel now ?
look, im not gonna say that is outrageous but let's get real.
the only way Noel's album sells the amount of copies needed to chart that high is if the label does its job. In other words, it wouldn't matter if it was Noel Gallagher, Liam Gallagher, or anyone you could think of, OR if the album was a huge pile of shit, if the label does its job, the album is likely to sell and chart well.
|
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 31, 2011 8:40:17 GMT -5
so we are predicting a top 10 album from Noel now ? look, im not gonna say that is outrageous but let's get real. the only way Noel's album sells the amount of copies needed to chart that high is if the label does its job. In other words, it wouldn't matter if it was Noel Gallagher, Liam Gallagher, or anyone you could think of, OR if the album was a huge pile of shit, if the label does its job, the album is likely to sell and chart well. The amount of the copies really doesn't matter. You could chart in the Top 10 with 20,000 copies depending on the week. And Beady Eye had 15,000 when they charted at #31. So no, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Where you chart in any chart depends on the weeks, more than the actual sells. |
|
|
|
Post by deasy on Aug 31, 2011 8:45:29 GMT -5
so we are predicting a top 10 album from Noel now ? look, im not gonna say that is outrageous but let's get real. the only way Noel's album sells the amount of copies needed to chart that high is if the label does its job. In other words, it wouldn't matter if it was Noel Gallagher, Liam Gallagher, or anyone you could think of, OR if the album was a huge pile of shit, if the label does its job, the album is likely to sell and chart well. The amount of the copies really doesn't matter. You could chart in the Top 10 with 20,000 copies depending on the week. And Beady Eye had 15,000 when they charted at #31. So no, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Where you chart in any chart depends on the weeks, more than the actual sells. With November being so close to Christmas, you are unlikely to get a low album sales week. Meaning a top 10 for Noel will be extremely unlikely. |
|
|
|
Post by start at the end on Aug 31, 2011 10:30:21 GMT -5
^ what kind of logic is being applied here? Folks are just as apt to buy a $10 CD/dowload as a gift as they are to not buy for themselves as the 10 bones will break the Christmas budget.
Album sales have typically been fine to great in the weeks leading up to Christmas in the US. Ask soundscan.
I fully expect a top ten release given the nature of the competition that appears to be set for that week and the preceding one.
|
|
|
|
Post by deasy on Aug 31, 2011 10:40:04 GMT -5
Album sales have typically been fine to great in the weeks leading up to Christmas in the US. Ask soundscan. Which is what I said  The amount of rereleases that the popstars generally release around this time of year along with the token Susan Boyle record will mean top 10 will be extremely difficult to achieve. He will need a very successful promo campaign. |
|
|
|
Post by start at the end on Aug 31, 2011 10:44:44 GMT -5
Album sales have typically been fine to great in the weeks leading up to Christmas in the US. Ask soundscan. Which is what I said The amount of rereleases that the popstars generally release around this time of year along with the token Susan Boyle record will mean top 10 will be extremely difficult to achieve. He will need a very successful promo campaign. my mistake I was in a hurry and thought you said you DID expect low sales. that said, the slated releases for the next 3 months are already easy enough to find and it doesn't appear he has much as far as competition in that slot. we'll see. |
|
|
|
Post by shoes222 on Aug 31, 2011 12:17:51 GMT -5
I will be fairly shocked if Noel's album doesn't chart in the top 10 the first week...there really isn't that much competition that week.
Noel will be more successful than BDI, that's almost a guaranteed fact. Just how much more though remains to be seen.
|
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 31, 2011 12:27:32 GMT -5
I will be fairly shocked if Noel's album doesn't chart in the top 10 the first week...there really isn't that much competition that week. Noel will be more successful than BDI, that's almost a guaranteed fact. Just how much more though remains to be seen. You'll be "shocked" wow, your optimism is much better than mine's. I just think that there's a decent chance that he'll either get just barely into the Top 10, or close to it (such as between 11-14). I get what deasy55 is saying. During that time, people who normally wouldn't be buying actual albums, will be buying albums. And there will be re-releases. It really will depend on the week. |
|
|
|
Post by Praetor on Aug 31, 2011 12:33:22 GMT -5
Yeah, there is A LOT of competition in October this year. He better sing IIHAG on Letterman for the aired show. I don't think BDI had much of a chance in America, the style of their music is very British. IIHAG at least appeals to the tastes of Americans, so who knows after a little exposure he might be invited to others shows as well. I think he'd be funny as shit as a guest on SNL...but maybe that's a pipe dream.
|
|
|
|
Post by spaneli on Aug 31, 2011 12:43:44 GMT -5
Yeah, there is A LOT of competition in October this year. He better sing IIHAG on Letterman for the aired show. I don't think BDI had much of a chance in America, the style of their music is very British. IIHAG at least appeals to the tastes of Americans, so who knows after a little exposure he might be invited to others shows as well. I think he'd be funny as shit as a guest on SNL...but maybe that's a pipe dream. Noel will probably be playing IIHAG when he goes on Letterman (I can't see him playing anything else, unless he releases another US single before then). And the show will be on November 10th during the week of the album's release in America. |
|
|
|
Post by Praetor on Aug 31, 2011 12:50:48 GMT -5
Oh right, it releases later in the US. So I'll be at the gig in Toronto before the album is even out here. I guess that's a good thing to have less exposure until I can get my tickets...  Still think an SNL hosted by Russell Brand with Noel as music guest would be epic. |
|
Nov 4, 2024 5:04:30 GMT -5
Nov 4, 2024 5:04:30 GMT -5