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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2005 7:26:34 GMT -5
originally i had figured like HC they would enter in 20 area then fade ..but now with all the seemingly positive chart positions in various countowns for lyla ,and with noel doin interviews,yahoo pluggin them on fron page saying its the eagerly awaited lp from them i am thinkin they may crack the top 10 with dbtt..i dont believe it could reach the top cause of all the rap crap that sells but i am startin to think top10 wtsmg and bhn did and i believe sotsog came in at 6 or 8...that would be awesome
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Post by skinneek on Apr 14, 2005 7:50:11 GMT -5
I think it is all going to come down to the strength of the single. If Lyla starts to blow up a little bit, I could see DBTT making a top 10 debut. If Lyla tanks here, it would most likely make an entrance near 20.
Either way, I'd expect it to fade a bit after the first week. Unfortunately, that seems to be the way it works for the good - yet not uber-popular - bands.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2005 8:04:21 GMT -5
I think it is all going to come down to the strength of the single. If Lyla starts to blow up a little bit, I could see DBTT making a top 10 debut. If Lyla tanks here, it would most likely make an entrance near 20. Either way, I'd expect it to fade a bit after the first week. Unfortunately, that seems to be the way it works for the good - yet not uber-popular - bands. sadly i agree
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Post by novascotialad on Apr 14, 2005 8:30:23 GMT -5
hasn't lyla already tanked?
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Post by novascotialad on Apr 14, 2005 8:31:38 GMT -5
befoe you say no, let me just say yes it has. its pretty weak so lets face it. the sun could be setting.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2005 8:35:58 GMT -5
befoe you say no, let me just say yes it has. its pretty weak so lets face it. the sun could be setting. i would not say thats the case judging from the request position its holding in bos seatlle la east coast to west...and u can only vote once it seems cause once u vote your usename cannot vote again,,(in bos and seattle) so i would not say it tanked mate...jmo
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Post by LuckyJim on Apr 14, 2005 9:43:19 GMT -5
Actually, I doubt DBTT will do well in the US, no matter how good it is. Contrary to what someone said above, SOTSG and HC didn't even make it in to the top 20 in the US, and I think sales for both albums COMBINED wouldn't have come to 500,000 — the figure at which an album is certified Gold here.
I say — WHO GIVES A DAMN? Yes, I like to see my favorite bands and artists do well, but it's enough for me to realize that worldwide HC (for example) sold something like 3-4 million copies (more than SOTSG, I've heard). So, I don't think Noel's bank account is going to dry up any time soon, and there will always be some record company willing to pay Oasis truckloads to make another record, which is what counts, I think.
Now, if I saw Oasis really slipping in the UK, that might disturb me, but despite the press saying "Oasis have gone downhill," (and really, what does that mean? Wouldn't, say, Travis love to fail to the tune of a million copies sold and singles that ALWAYS make the top 5?) I don't see that happening yet (though I do wonder at releasing "Lyla" to radio SIX WEEKS before the single is available).
But the US? All the outlets for "breaking" a band here — radio, MTV, etc — are a mess. MTV doesn't play videos anymore, and radio is a disaster. Even the cookie-cutter "alternative" stations in every town that played Oasis ten years ago are all gone. Outside of a big city, you won't find anyone playing anything remotely interesting. Satellite and internet radio might provide a better outlet for them, but not on the MASSIVE scale you need to put an album in the top 10. So, good stuff loses out. If DBTT comes and goes like SOTSG and HC, it won't have anything to do with how good it is.
Whew! What a rant. Sorry. I'll go now.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2005 9:50:33 GMT -5
its a good rant lucky jim to big to quote but sotsog did crack the top 10 on its debut it then fell off horribly HC did enter at 20 somethin then fell horribly ,look it up i agree with everything u wrote about if they fell off in the uk ,
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Post by skinneek on Apr 14, 2005 9:53:21 GMT -5
Wow - Very insightful stuff there by LuckyJim. This is exactly why I read stuff here instead of the oasisinet forums. For the most part, people here are bright and present thoughtful and articulate ideas.
"Who gives a damn" if they do well here, you asked? I do. The better they do here is directly related to the amount of touring they will do here. If they somehow sold over a million albums in the US, I think we could expect extensive touring off of this album. I'm a greedy man. I want Oasis to come near my town as many times as possible.
As for the other post about Lyla already tanking here; I think its a bit early for that statement. Sounds like Lyla is getting more play than The Hindu Times did stateside. If the large markets (NYC, LA) pick it up, the rest of the country will follow. Luckily, local stations in LA and NYC will be promoting the shows in those respective cities.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2005 9:56:54 GMT -5
Wow - Very insightful stuff there by LuckyJim. This is exactly why I read stuff here instead of the oasisinet forums. For the most part, people here are bright and present thoughtful and articulate ideas. "Who gives a damn" if they do well here, you asked? I do. The better they do here is directly related to the amount of touring they will do here. If they somehow sold over a million albums in the US, I think we could expect extensive touring off of this album. I'm a greedy man. I want Oasis to come near my town as many times as possible. As for the other post about Lyla already tanking here; I think its a bit early for that statement. Sounds like Lyla is getting more play than The Hindu Times did stateside. If the large markets (NYC, LA) pick it up, the rest of the country will follow. Luckily, local stations in LA and NYC will be promoting the shows in those respective cities. he made alot of good points but he was off about HC it entered billboard at 23 or 21 and sotosg if it was not top 10 in entry or peek ity was close cause i know it was higher than HC BHN peeked at 8 wtsmg 4 so there is a base of fans that he is missin who still buy lps
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Post by skinneek on Apr 14, 2005 9:59:50 GMT -5
I agree with you. Oasis has a large built-in audience in the States that will go buy this album in the first week.
Single or no single - Oasis will sell a good 90,000 in the first week. That's probably good enough for the top 25.
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Post by calioasis on Apr 14, 2005 10:10:02 GMT -5
Be Here Now debuted at #2 here, right behind Puff Daddy I think. Missed out on #1 by a few thousand copies.
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Post by LuckyJim on Apr 14, 2005 10:30:14 GMT -5
Sorry. Yes. Good point about touring, skineek. I have been fortunate to see Oasis everytime they played Indianapolis, including the first time, when they were playing at some rinky-dink venue for $10, and Liam and then the rest of the band left the stage in the middle of "Shakermaker" when someone threw a plastic cup at him (they didn't come back, but when I saw them a year later in the middle of MG hysteria, the place sold out in hours and they were FANTASTIC). The last time I saw them was with the Black Crows almost 4 years ago, and their gig in Indy for HC was cancelled after Noel was in a car accident (that's their story, anyway). But, my point is, you're right — they won't play those secondary markets like Indy if they don't sell decently here in the US. Other fave Brit bands of mine, like the Charlatans UK and Supergrass, only hit the top big city markets when they play here, and I've always been grateful that Oasis play some other places.
What I think US record promotion seems to miss, though, is the idea of letting a new album by an established band simmer a little bit. They're so used to monster bands like U2 and Greenday selling huge amounts their first week out that if an established band like Oasis doesn't do the same, they don't have a shot. Sure, all the hard core fans like us will buy the new album in the first week (hell, the first day), but I think Oasis would probably sell more in the US if the record companies spread the promotional budget out a little more, instead of just budgeting for the first 3 months around the release date. I mean, even if DBTT doesn't debut in the top 10, wouldn't it be cooler if the album floated around the top 50 for half a year, selling steadily each week, than if it came a went in about 4 weeks time? Heck, it worked for the Killers and the dreaded Maroon 5.
But I'm not a record company exec, so what do I know?
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Post by StepOut on Apr 14, 2005 10:32:20 GMT -5
They'll crack the top 20. Here in Canada it will go #1 and stay there for awhile.
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Post by skinneek on Apr 14, 2005 10:44:47 GMT -5
LuckyJim - you should change your name to BrightJim.
I agree wholeheartedly about spreading out the promotional budget. The major labels tend to forget about an album if it starts to fade fast from the album chart. Maroo5, just like you stated, was nurtured by their record company. That record was out for a good year before it started to garner some steam. All to often you see a label totally scrap an album if it doesn't blow up.
The bands that I like tend to only play Atlanta, which is a 4 hour drive from where I live. Selling lots of albums would probably garner a stop in Charlotte, which isn't large enough to get most acts.
Speaking of Supergrass - which you mentioned in your post - I drove to Atlanta to see them 2 years ago when they were touring off of Life on Other Planets. One of the best live shows I've ever seen. It was insane.
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Post by omachoomar on Apr 14, 2005 11:04:49 GMT -5
I think its important to make a distinction between Oasis doing well on alternative music radio stations and doing well overall on the radio. It is not suprising that they are doing well on alternative music radio stations, who are pretty favorable to british bands. However thier are not that many of them in the states and if they don't also get played on rock stations(which greatly outnumber alternative stations) or general music stations then i think the album will do about as well as HC.(Rock stations play a mix of older/newer rock, usually playing heavier rock/punk, something like oasis/travis/coldplay does'nt fit into thier format for the most part)
Hopefully a tune from this album will catch fire on US radio, but i dont think lyla is that tune.
Furthermore, Since wtsmg I think Oasis's managment has really dropped the ball on promoting oasis within the us by not doing a good job releasing the right singles to radio.
BHN sold over a million copies here, but would have sold more if they had released Stand by me as a single instead of i hope i think i know.
The bands managment seemed to give up with SOSOG. First single was go let it out, an average tune. then where did it all go wrong. Only 2 singles released. could have given gas panic or who feels love a try.
As for the last album, hindu times was released like 2 months before the album came out. Then the only single released to radio after that was scyho, whjch did'nt get much play.
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Post by LuckyJim on Apr 14, 2005 11:23:24 GMT -5
Ahh, yes, the multi-hour drive to see your favorite bands. I live in a small city/large town in Northeast Indiana, so the two-hour drive to Indianapolis or the three-hour drive to Chicago or Detroit is one which I am familiar with. Like you, I saw Supergrass almost two years ago on the Life On Other Planets tour (I went to Chicago for it), and I enjoyed the show tremendously.
But, getting back to Oasis… Well, actually, I think I've exhausted everyone's patience with this subject (and I really should do some work here), but I think what we're talking about here — record company machinations, and what record companies should do, etc — is sort of the classic conflict between fans and people whose job it is to shift units. I'm betting that, like me, many people on this board go to great lengths to seek out music they enjoy and find interesting, and we would like more outlets to see/hear our favorite bands. I remember reading where the singer of Cracker said that given the choice between having one album that sold millions, and having a series of albums that sold a few hundred thousand copies each, he'd go for the second choice, and build a lengthy career and sizeable catalog. I think most music fans would agree with him, and though it seems that that's what a record company would want — a reliable act that can sell steadily for years — the whole industry seems geared to the quick hit and the big jackpot.
So, anyway, I'm done. But I have a funny story about the dreaded Maroon 5. That album actually came out about 3 weeks after HC. I know because I bought it. As I'm sure many people know by now, they used to be a Brit-pop sounding group called Kara's Flowers. I had the Kara's Flowers album from 1997, enjoyed it, wondered what happened to them, and picked up the Maroon 5 album thinking it would be more of the same. Imagine my surprise… and SHAME. I remember two guys I used to be in a band with discovering the Maroon 5 CD in my collection during a Christmas party at my house. I had a lot of explaining to do (I've sold it since then. And I apologize to any hard core Maroon 5 fans on the Oasis forums).
Okay, now I'm done for real.
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Post by LuckyJim on Apr 14, 2005 11:26:28 GMT -5
Sorry. Shgould have said my previous post was to the Supergrass fan. But Oma is right, too. Good points.
Okay, now I RAELLY need to get some work done…
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Post by flashbax812 on Apr 15, 2005 0:55:35 GMT -5
SOTSOG was 23rd
Im thinking this will be lucky to top that
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Post by Gifford on Apr 15, 2005 1:25:36 GMT -5
well you gotta expect that those going to the gigs will buy the record. plus since the new york one will be pretty hyped up then that will help them.
as for the comments about airplay with mtv and radio, these mediums are gone. the convience of mtv has worn off now with the internet. as for radio, the ipod generation doesnt want to listen to predeterminded music. the only medium that really seems to be working is through commercials. the prime example is ironically jet. they wouldnt have gotten big without the ipod commercial. the kicker with jet is that they were smart about that deal. if they make a commercial as their first public outing, they have no real 'credibility' to lose. plus as far as i know they didnt make any money off the commercial.
now back to oasis. i think this album will do well. is been more anticipated stateside than hc. i'm sure everyone on this site will buy it the day it comes out.
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ozfan2
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Post by ozfan2 on Apr 15, 2005 10:53:37 GMT -5
I'm in Australia but have a funny feeling they'll get top 5 at least (in the US) . May be wishful thinking but I think this album is going to go ballistic world wide..
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Post by damonabnormal on Apr 15, 2005 13:08:57 GMT -5
My guess is slightly better than HC did here... hopefully a debut in the top 20. Oasis pretty much shot themselves in the foot here with regards to radio, TV and such so I expect zero help from anyone outside fans buying LOTS of concert tickets and taking it to the radio stations via e-mail.
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Post by USOasis86 on Apr 15, 2005 18:03:47 GMT -5
Well if us Americans(not the oasis fans) im talkin about the ones who are blind to real rock...would wake up and smell the coffee....the album would hold strong in the top 20 or 10 for a month than slowly fade
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