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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Mar 2, 2016 8:43:31 GMT -5
This has to be scary for Republicans. Even with Trump going more mainstream in a general, neither him nor Ted Cruz would win in a general election. Don't be too sure about that....
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Post by RocketMan on Mar 2, 2016 9:27:24 GMT -5
Its a joke that he could be the next president what an idiot
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Post by spaneli on Mar 2, 2016 13:22:26 GMT -5
This has to be scary for Republicans. Even with Trump going more mainstream in a general, neither him nor Ted Cruz would win in a general election. Don't be too sure about that.... No, I'm pretty sure about. Let's be honest, trump wouldn't win in a general. Even by going mainstream so to speak, he would lose. Same with Ted Cruz. Sad thing, is it I don't think Cruz knows what the mainstream is. There is a certain point where you go so far right, even when you make it back to the center it's not the center. It nearly happened to Romney during his primary run, it's definitely happened to Trump. Speaking of Romney, what does it say when the previous nominee of the party has routinely said that Trump has disqualified himself as a nominee multiple times? It'll also be difficult for local state republicans to support him in a general due to the fear of down ballot losses, even if trump went mainstream so to speak. Trump also has no actual platform. And more so than Romney he has alienated multiple segments of voters, especially hispanic, that he will not win back, which as we have seen, is kinda a big deal. He's barely peaked above 37% in any of his contests. These things don't fly in a general. They just dont. You need to build a coalition greater than a finite segment of the population, you need down ballot support, he need a comprehensive platform, and you need for the majority within your own party to support you. These things haven't changed, and these are most likely the things Trump will lack in a general.
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Mar 2, 2016 13:41:13 GMT -5
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Post by As You Built The Moon on Mar 2, 2016 13:42:46 GMT -5
Biff Tannen will beat grandma if that's who we're down to. Get used to it.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 16:45:16 GMT -5
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Post by mystoryisgory on Mar 2, 2016 17:05:47 GMT -5
Where's our new Supreme Court Justice, Mr Obama? It's long overdue. Don't "compromise" with the Republicans, don't try to "meet them in the middle", don't care about your reputation, you're in your lame duck period, for crying out loud! They'll never agree to anything you want, simply because you're a Democrat, and they've already said this many times. If you nominate someone, you'll put the ball in their court, and then the public can judge who's being unreasonable (hint: it's the Senate). You have the chance to change the outlook of the court for decades, and change government policy in favour of your party. You have the chance to reverse decisions such as Citizens United and Shelby County v. Holder. Don't delay, do your duty as President, and nominate somebody. #justicenow
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Post by Elie De Beaufour 🐴 on Mar 3, 2016 10:49:51 GMT -5
Hilary Clinton and Email. I wonder how the FBI got involved
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Post by spaneli on Mar 3, 2016 13:13:04 GMT -5
Don't think Hillary or anyone will be convicted of anything.
The last person to have run into this is Patreus, who happened to lie to the FBI, declassified code words and covert officers, war strategy and defense capabilities. All of those are grave crimes as grounds for espionage, far more egregious than what is at stake in Hillary's e-mail case. Even then, Patreus was fined 100k and given two years probation. If that case is used as precedent, as it should be, then I doubt if anyone involved with this will see a day in jail.
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Post by spaneli on Mar 3, 2016 13:28:56 GMT -5
Biff Tannen will beat grandma if that's who we're down to. Get used to it. I think that says much more about Bernie than Hillary. Hillary hasn't promised massive turnout, but Bernie has. The low turnout is really a marked sign of his inability to turn out his core constituencies. It's another reason I don't think Bernie is a viable candidate. His candidacy, or supposed revolution, has failed to produced the turnout that he's been saying we should expect. I don't see how that would change in a general when the one has to begin to speak to moderate base rather than a rabid far left base. However, an increased Republican turnout could be more emblematic of the larger field within their primary. More people are beholden to a candidate they support, so a great chance for turnout as people continue to support their candidate. In short, between two races, one with two candidates and another, at the time, with five, one would expect the one with five to have a higher turnout as there are more candidates who are getting votes from people who wouldn't ordinarily vote if their candidate wasn't still present. I would also make note that the states listed here are highly partisan. Vermont is firmly in the democratic column, while Oklahoma, Texas, and Tennessee are firmly Republican states. No amount of turnout on either side would change either state from being a red or blue state, so that's highly misleading for CNN to use. The only exception on this list is Virginia. But Virginia was also an open primary state. That is to say, Democrats and Independents could choose to vote Republican if they wanted to. Chances are there wasn't a true 107% jump in "Republican" voters. Chances are Democrats and Independents found the Republican portion to be more important to vote in, especially considering Trump is such a derisive figure. In many of these open primaries, you will see Democrats and Independents jumping to the Republican side to possibly vote against Trump rather than for any Republican candidate in particular. I think logically going through this graphic, it's pretty clear that it's a fairly misleading accumulation of numbers by CNN without any context. Essentially, it's not much better than political click bait.
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Post by Ross on Mar 3, 2016 17:31:09 GMT -5
Mitt Romney the man that helped give people a reason not to vote republican last time, is attempting to do the same this time. And that is the kind of message i can endorse.
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Mar 3, 2016 20:48:14 GMT -5
Watching yet another GOP debate. #OBAMAOUT
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Post by mystoryisgory on Mar 4, 2016 1:18:37 GMT -5
It's been pretty clear that the issue regarding Clinton's email server was fueled by partisan politics on behalf of the Republicans. Sure, there is a legitimate concern about breaking State Department rules, but it's nothing so egregious that she should face serious consequences. For Fox News to keep going on and on about it is simply ridiculous. Benghazi 2.0, yet twice as pointless.
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Mar 4, 2016 8:14:10 GMT -5
It's been pretty clear that the issue regarding Clinton's email server was fueled by partisan politics on behalf of the Republicans. Sure, there is a legitimate concern about breaking State Department rules, but it's nothing so egregious that she should face serious consequences. For Fox News to keep going on and on about it is simply ridiculous. Benghazi 2.0, yet twice as pointless. The email thing is actually very serious. If convicted, it's a felony.
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Post by mystoryisgory on Mar 4, 2016 12:31:22 GMT -5
It's been pretty clear that the issue regarding Clinton's email server was fueled by partisan politics on behalf of the Republicans. Sure, there is a legitimate concern about breaking State Department rules, but it's nothing so egregious that she should face serious consequences. For Fox News to keep going on and on about it is simply ridiculous. Benghazi 2.0, yet twice as pointless. The email thing is actually very serious. If convicted, it's a felony. There definitely is a legitimate concern about the emails. As a fan of the FOIA, I am slightly worried about what effects this could have. But as much as Fox News wants to make this into a "White House Horrors" situation, it will never be even close to as serious as Nixon's actions. It's just an attempt to dig up dirt on Hillary. For reasons that spanels stated above, and that it's unclear that she violated any law, it's unlikely that she'll be convicted of anything. You wanna talk about serious issues? What about the $4.6 million that the House Committee on Benghazi has spent repeatedly trying to implicate Clinton? Surely that's a misuse of pubic funds for political purposes, and an abuse of power? I'm sure if the Democrats did something like that, people like Kevin McCarthy would be the first to speak out.
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Post by The Escapist on Mar 4, 2016 15:40:07 GMT -5
Dear assorted politicians (and Donald Trump):
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Post by spaneli on Mar 5, 2016 21:15:45 GMT -5
This sets up to be another very bad night for Rubio.
These are VERY small states on both sides, but Ted Cruz is starting to look like option #2, which is only slightly better than option #1 for Republicans, Donald Trump. I think the Democrats would be happy to face either one of them. The difficulty for Rubio is that he's trying to survive until what looks to be a brokered convention. However, he's not really putting himself in good position to be a suitable alternative. Can Republicans bypass the top 2 delegate winners to someone who has been struggling to finish 3rd? Not likely.
I suspect Sanders will have a good night tonight. 3/4 states set-up really well for him. 1. There are no barely any black people in 3/4 states. 2. The electorates are highly liberal in 3/4. 3. 3/4 are caucuses. However, March 8th and 15th set-up to be the death knell for him. Super Tuesday was the near knock-out blow, Michigan, North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Mississippi are all states where Clinton will most likely by a margin of at least 15 points. 980 delegates are involved. With proportional delegates, and Clinton's likely margins of victories, her already near insurmountable lead, will be insurmountable for Bernie.
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Post by mkoasis on Mar 5, 2016 22:33:44 GMT -5
I want to thank all of you who post here for providing some informative commentary, regardless of your perspective (that includes @beady's Mighty Eye). It's interesting to see the view from those who live in the US, and far more informative than the news will offer you.
I can never get over how long your election seasons are...our last one was our longest yet at some 70 days, which seemed interminable and got rather nasty. I can't believe there's still almost enough time for an baby to be concieved and delivered before this is over.
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Post by Lennon2217 on Mar 6, 2016 0:19:21 GMT -5
FACT: Hillary will be the next President of The United States of America.
* Now what do we call Bill? First Husband? President Clinton? FHOTUS? #OnceAPrezAlwaysAPrez
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Mar 6, 2016 11:08:34 GMT -5
FACT: Hillary will be the next President of The United States of America. * Now what do we call Bill? First Husband? President Clinton? FHOTUS? #OnceAPrezAlwaysAPrez Again, I'm not too sure. Once the dust settles on the primary season (for both parties) I expect to have more insight. But don't bank on Hillary, and don't bank on a landslide loss due to the GOP candidate being Trump. In fact, I think a landslide - in either direction - can be completely ruled out. Even if Hillary wins the Presidency, it won't be by 2008 numbers, or even 2012 numbers I don't think.
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Post by uǝɥʇɐǝɥ on Mar 6, 2016 16:13:07 GMT -5
Donald Trumps said more irrational things than Noel and Liam on several herbs.
But besides Trump, we've also got people with academic degrees stating the most irrational biased things when it comes to politics. What does this all come down to? I mean, repeated misconceptions have to be considered as stupidity at some point. I'm talking about racism, climate change, old shool fascism, gender equality. These are things that half way intelligent thinking persons make their minds up. And where is this coming from? Affection towards misdirection? Psychosis? Impulsive disorderes?
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Post by spaneli on Mar 6, 2016 18:32:29 GMT -5
FACT: Hillary will be the next President of The United States of America. * Now what do we call Bill? First Husband? President Clinton? FHOTUS? #OnceAPrezAlwaysAPrez Again, I'm not too sure. Once the dust settles on the primary season (for both parties) I expect to have more insight. But don't bank on Hillary, and don't bank on a landslide loss due to the GOP candidate being Trump. In fact, I think a landslide - in either direction - can be completely ruled out. Even if Hillary wins the Presidency, it won't be by 2008 numbers, or even 2012 numbers I don't think. I still believe Rubio is the best candidate on either side. I don't think it will be a landslide either. Partisan politics will give any nominee on either side enough legs to stand on. However, considering Trump and Cruz could create a lot of down ballot loses, it will be difficult to envision local republicans in battle ground states helping them out too much. As we have also seen in general elections, demographics matter. I'm not sure trump or cruz could achieve the demographics margins among independents, hispanics, and blacks that even Romney achieved, and Romney was fairly lacking. I think 2012 would be a likely outcome. A fairly close race, but a race where one candidate is clearly wounded with multiple demographics. It's very difficult to envision, even a center right country like America, with Trump or Cruz going more moderate, voting for either one of them to the degree required to win. Especially considering, both are more reviled in their party than Romney was. If Romney couldn't win, someone with legitimate presidential credentials against a weak incumbent, then why would Cruz or Trump? Barring this email thing spiraling out of control, which there's been no indication that we're remotely close to something like that happening, I think it will be extremely difficult to beat Hillary. Extremely.
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Post by spaneli on Mar 7, 2016 1:17:51 GMT -5
Really bad night for Bernie in the debate.
He got hit hard on the bailout of the auto industry. That question alone probably put Michigan out of reach for him.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 21:26:25 GMT -5
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Mar 8, 2016 21:32:31 GMT -5
Rubio should just drop the fuck out. I'm all for him trying to get it to a brokered convention, but I don't even see that as viable at this point. The nomination is Trump's, and the American public have failed us all once again.
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