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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2016 19:44:03 GMT -5
You're right. I mis-remembered that one. But the General Election and Brexit were both surprising results. Yeah, they were. British polling companies are on the whole a lot more unreliable than American ones. Also, there is a precedent to accurately judge US elections by comparing previous ones. There is also a precedent for British general elections but 2015 was much more difficult due to its greater multi-party status than the US which complicated predictions. |
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 19:45:23 GMT -5
Trump edging ahead in FL.
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Post by spaneli on Nov 8, 2016 19:46:09 GMT -5
Clinton up 1 w/o major Democratic counties reporting at all. 40% of the vote in, and the southern Democratic portion of Florida counts for about 30% of the state's population. That's a bad sign for Trump. Really bad. Be careful. Florida is very fluid. Trump at 3% in Florida with 47% reported. www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/FLDepends on where the vote is coming from. But nothing much from the major Democratic and population areas. Once again, that's a bad sign for Trump. If the race were going well for him, one would expect him to be up by about 7 points with a majority of Republican votes coming in. Trump's best chance is to keep the margins in Democratic areas of Florida "somewhat" close. If not, then there won't be many places where he'll make-up the margin. Trump's lack of a ground game may seriously hurt him. |
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 19:49:28 GMT -5
Clinton back ahead in FL!!!!!
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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2016 19:50:00 GMT -5
Trump edging ahead in FL. That's merely the Republican counties declaring before the real battleground counties. Clinton still in a strong position. |
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Post by spaneli on Nov 8, 2016 19:51:42 GMT -5
Duvall is currently tied in Florida with 50k votes left. Cannot overstate how bad that is for Trump. Duvall is a Republican stronghold.
That's a county Trump NEEDS to win.
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Post by guigsysEstring on Nov 8, 2016 19:53:53 GMT -5
Trump edging ahead in FL. That's merely the Republican counties declaring before the real battleground counties. Clinton still in a strong position. You must be enjoying this matt after the 2015 General Election  In all seriousness I think it's fairly obvious even now which way this election is going to go, barring some very unlikely shock results. |
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 19:57:09 GMT -5
Can I go to bed yet? I've got a 30hour flight in the morning!
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Post by guigsysEstring on Nov 8, 2016 19:58:03 GMT -5
Can I go to bed yet? I've got a 30hour flight in the morning! Yes- sod off and enjoy Australia!  In all seriousness safe trip and enjoy your holidays  |
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Post by spaneli on Nov 8, 2016 19:58:43 GMT -5
Trump edging ahead in FL. That's merely the Republican counties declaring before the real battleground counties. Clinton still in a strong position. Expect Trump to go back in the lead when the panhandle of Florida closes its voting. However, expect Clinton to make that up when the Southern portions of Florida comes in, and most likely stay in the lead. imo. |
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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2016 19:59:58 GMT -5
I'm calling 350 for Clinton......  |
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 20:00:06 GMT -5
Can I go to bed yet? I've got a 30hour flight in the morning! Yes- sod off and enjoy Australia! In all seriousness safe trip and enjoy your holidays This is addictive lol. |
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Post by spaneli on Nov 8, 2016 20:01:07 GMT -5
I'm calling 350 for Clinton...... Probably not. 320 would be a tremendous night for her tbh. |
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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2016 20:02:42 GMT -5
I'm calling 350 for Clinton...... Probably not. 320 would be a tremendous night for her tbh. Do you think at least 320? 320 was my original prediction on 270 to Win. But she's trouncing some counties in North Carolina with a stronger showing than Obama in 2012... |
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Post by spaneli on Nov 8, 2016 20:13:26 GMT -5
Probably not. 320 would be a tremendous night for her tbh. Do you think at least 320? 320 was my original prediction on 270 to Win. But she's trouncing some counties in North Carolina with a stronger showing than Obama in 2012... Really depends on Florida. Florida will be extremely close. I think Clinton barely squeaks it out. And I mean, barely. Like Democratic Iowa primary margin (margin around .3-.5) |
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 20:14:38 GMT -5
Oooooooh FL tied now. Wow!
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Nov 8, 2016 20:15:07 GMT -5
Florida is insanely close. INSANE.
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 20:16:00 GMT -5
Florida is insanely close. INSANE. Crazy stuff. |
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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2016 20:16:09 GMT -5
Do you think at least 320? 320 was my original prediction on 270 to Win. But she's trouncing some counties in North Carolina with a stronger showing than Obama in 2012... Really depends on Florida. Florida will be extremely close. I think Clinton barely squeaks it out. And I mean, barely. Like Democratic Iowa primary margin (margin around .3-.5) I'm wondering what Clinton's vote share in the Republican counties in FL are compared to Obama's four years previously. Could be a good indicator of her chances. |
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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2016 20:19:26 GMT -5
Almost 8 million votes in Florida and barely the number of a small secondary school is what separates them!
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 20:22:03 GMT -5
Trump will edge FL.
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Nov 8, 2016 20:23:34 GMT -5
Talk about over stimulation:
Watching the election coverage by CNN on the iPad, have NBC State Polls sites open, analyzing the results on the Oasis forum, talking to my parents, scrawling through Facebook, and texting all simultaneously.
I'm losing my fucking mind. #election
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Post by batfink30 on Nov 8, 2016 20:25:37 GMT -5
Talk about over stimulation:
Watching the election coverage by CNN on the iPad, have NBC State Polls sites open, analyzing the results on the Oasis forum, talking to my parents, scrawling through Facebook, and texting all simultaneously. I'm losing my fucking mind. #election Funny, I read the end of your post as #erection!.. .indeed! |
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Post by spaneli on Nov 8, 2016 20:25:47 GMT -5
Panhandle of Florida coming in. It typically leans Republicans. It was expected that he would go back ahead of Florida. However, Brower county has not reported. That's a massive Democratic stronghold. Expect Clinton to go back in the lead. It's all about where the votes are coming from, and the margins coming in. |
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Post by Beady’s Here Now on Nov 8, 2016 20:26:50 GMT -5
Assuming Trump has Florida (big assumption, mind).....my real concern now goes to North Carolina.
If I don't post in this thread frequently, it's because I'm overstimulated with covering this election.
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Nov 4, 2024 5:04:30 GMT -5
Nov 4, 2024 5:04:30 GMT -5